LifestyleWellness Overconfidence & The Plan Premortem

overconfidence

Overconfidence can be an obstacle in your fitness journey

One of the biggest obstacles I have come to see that stops someone’s fitness programme dead in its tracks is overconfidence.

Overconfidence in the story they have told themselves that they can succeed.

It is not a case that they are incapable of achieving what they set out to but rather they have failed to consider the possible (and most likely) barriers and obstacles that plague most of us who begin with the best of intentions to improve our health.
In the book ‘Thinking fast and slow’ byDaniel Kahneman explains that psychologist Gary Klein termed a process he labeled the premortem to companies and organizations who come to an important business decision but have not yet formally committed to it.
Klein proposes that companies gather their staff who are knowledgeable about the decision in question for a brief session. Klein’s premise for the session is a short speech:
“Imagine that we are a year into the future. We implemented the plan as it now exists. The outcome was a disaster”.
You can apply this process to individuals. The main advantage is that we are able to peek into a likely future and anticipate and predict obstacles that will inevitably fall in our path. Such as having to stay late at work, constantly having to entertain potential client’s, kids clubs, changing circumstances, setbacks, the co-workers who bring in boxes of crispy kremes and biscuits, testing our resolve on almost a daily basis, seeing others making progress faster than us, the scales not moving down fast enough, sapping us of our motivation and enthusiasm.

The premortem is not a crystal ball to see certain future events.

It is a dose of rationality. It allows us to maintain a more realistic and rational expectation of the journey we are taking.
In our society, we place far too much emphasis and on all the things which can go right for us. We tell ourselves a perfect story of future success. Looking at things that can go wrong is unnatural and counterintuitive to most of us. It is almost non-human. We shun anything that conflicts with our positive energy.
This positivity and overconfidence blind us as we assume the challenges will be easier than they are in reality. Our overwhelming positivity and enthusiasm are based on weak foundations. Therefore, when life inevitably throws obstacles in our way, that positivity and enthusiasm quickly start to crumble and we get nothing but negativity about a journey we were not so long ago so positive about.
A premortem is like a strategic battle plan. Our positivity and enthusiasm are our fuel for success. So we have to protect and cultivate it if we are to reach the goals we set out to achieve. Taking the time to think ahead can make the difference between success and failure.

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